Background

Dengue is the most important arboviral infection affecting humans and presents a major global challenge for public health services. In endemic areas like Viet Nam, seasonal epidemics of varying size and intensity can overwhelm health service capacity. Thus, the ability to identify the precise location, size and duration of a dengue outbreak is important to target mitigation efforts effectively.

Aims

We will explore forecasts from ECMWF, initially for retrospective daily forecasts of the last 20 years, with the prospect of using real-time forecasts and longer time horizons later on.

Using an ensemble approach will not only provide the likely mean trajectory of dengue in the future but also give uncertainty estimates facilitating likely worst-case scenario estimation for increased stakeholder preparation and targeted interventions.

Additionally, integrating weather forecast data in the system at the initial design phase of DART will enable the subsequent extension of the system to provide stakeholders with relevant information on longer timescales (monthly, seasonal, decadal).

This addition will allow the exploration of if and how remote climatic drivers may affect dengue outbreaks in Viet Nam, leading to a greater understanding of weather and climate impacts on dengue and subsequently improving dengue forecasts.